Calgary — September 13, 2025
High Tide Inc. (Nasdaq: HITI; TSXV: HITI), the cannabis-retail and brand company behind the Canna Cabana chain and a growing white-label and global expansion initiative, is preparing to release its third fiscal quarter results on Monday, September 15, 2025 after market close, with a follow-up conference call on Tuesday morning. (hightideinc.com)
The release follows a strong “sneak preview” of sorts in mid-August, when the company issued preliminary Q3 guidance. That preview has raised expectations among analysts and investors, and the actual numbers will be closely watched to see how closely the real-worlds results align with that guidance. Below is a look at what was shared in August, what it might mean, and what to watch for when the full report drops.
August Guidance: Rising Bar for Q3
On August 18, 2025, High Tide issued preliminary guidance for Q3 fiscal 2025 (the quarter ended July 31). Key points from that guidance included:
- Record Revenue anticipated. The company expects that revenue in Q3 will surpass previous levels. (hightideinc.com)
- Adjusted EBITDA to be ahead of analyst forecast. It’s not just revenue growth that’s expected; the profitability measure (adjusted for non-cash or non-core items) is predicted to show strong sequential improvement. (hightideinc.com)
- Same-store sales growth of about 7.4% year-over-year. This is especially notable for the Canna Cabana retail network in Canada, and is described as the fastest in two years. (hightideinc.com)
- The company also flagged its entry into Germany via an acquisition of a majority stake in Remexian Pharma GmbH, which indicates that growth is not solely domestic but increasingly international. (hightideinc.com)
These previews suggest that High Tide is confident not only in top-line growth but also in its ability to convert that growth into improved operational performance.
What This Means for High Tide: Implications & Expectations
The August guidance sets a fairly aggressive benchmark. If High Tide delivers on those expectations, several positive implications follow:
- Reinforced Credibility and Momentum
Matching or exceeding guidance would underscore High Tide’s ability to execute consistently, particularly in same-store sales and managed profitability. This would strengthen investor confidence. - Strong Retail Base
The same-store sales metric is often a key indicator in retail businesses that growth is coming from existing operations rather than just expansion. That 7.4% number suggests that the core Canna Cabana stores are showing robust demand. - Margin & Efficiency Gains
With adjusted EBITDA expected to be ahead of forecasts, the company must be controlling costs, achieving scale, or realizing synergies. If margins improve, it could indicate better leverage from its infrastructure or better mix (higher-margin products, more sales per store, efficiencies in supply chain). - International Growth as a Dilutive or Accretive Factor
The move into Germany via Remexian Pharma is important. It could become an additional revenue stream, but there are integration risks—regulatory, cost, competition. How that shows up (or not) in the Q3 numbers will matter for long-term growth narrative. - Investor Expectations are Elevated
Because the guidance was strong, the expectations are elevated. If the results fall short of guidance in a material way, the stock may react negatively. Conversely, beating guidance could lead to a positive re-rating.
What Already Known: Q1 & Q2 Trends
To put the Q3 preview in context, it’s useful to remember what High Tide had shown in recent quarters:
- Q1 2025: Revenue of CAD$142.5 million, up ~11% year-over-year; same-store sales increased ~5% YoY; strong growth in loyalty programs (Cabana Club & ELITE). (PR Newswire)
- Q2 2025: Revenue ~CAD$137.8 million, up ~11% YoY (faster growth when adjusted for fewer days); adjusted EBITDA positive; free cash flow of around CAD$4.9 million. Retail growth strong; expansion in memberships; negotiations underway for German medical cannabis entry. (hightideinc.com)
These trends suggest that the company has already established momentum in both revenue and retail execution, which makes the Q3 guidance more credible.
What to Watch in the Q3 Report
Given the prior data and the August preview, here are some of the key metrics and statements investors will be looking out for when the Q3 results are released:
| Metric / Element | Why It Matters |
|---|---|
| Revenue vs. Guidance | Will show if projected record revenue was achieved. If revenue is below the guided level, it may suggest weak spots. |
| Adjusted EBITDA & Margin Trends | This reveals whether revenue growth is translating into real profitability gains. Margin pressures (e.g., cost increases, inflation, supply chain) could undermine adjusted EBITDA. |
| Same-Store Sales Growth | The 7.4% figure is ambitious; beating or meeting it shows strong demand, good execution. Falling below could signal issues in consumer environment or competition. |
| Cash Flow / Free Cash Flow | Investors will want to see whether operations are generating cash, especially since Q2 had positive free cash flow (~CAD$4.9M), but that number can fluctuate. Strong cash flow supports debt servicing, further store expansion, etc. (hightideinc.com) |
| Retail Footprint Growth / Store Count | Any increase in store opens or closings will show how physical expansion is contributing. Also, inclusion of any German operations or other international components. |
| Membership / Loyalty Metrics | Growth of Cabana Club and ELITE membership is a recurring theme. More members generally mean more repeat business and revenue stability. |
| Update on Germany / Remexian Acquisition | How much in near term the Germany operations will contribute, what costs or integration issues are present. Also regulatory environment. |
| Expense Pressures / Cost Control | Wages, real estate, supply chain, regulatory compliance costs can squeeze margins; whether management addresses these or gives guidance on them. |
| Outlook and Forward Guidance | What the company says about Q4 or full-year, and whether they adjust expectations given macro conditions (inflation, regulatory changes). |
Risks & Things That Could Go Wrong
While the August guidance suggests bullish expectations, there are always potential headwinds:
- Regulatory Uncertainty in international markets, especially Germany. Cannabis regulatory regimes are complex; changes or delays could affect expected contributions.
- Cost Pressures: Labour, rent, supply chain, utilities, etc., could increase faster than revenue growth, squeezing margins even if revenue is good.
- Macro Factors: Consumer spending, inflation, interest rates, competition may all weigh.
- Cannabis-specific Risks: Licensing, regulatory delays, supply restrictions, tax or compliance burdens.
- Currency / Cross-Border Issues: As operations become more global, exchange rate swings, import/export costs, etc., matter.
Analyst Take / Market Expectations
From the external research and reporting:
- Some analyst commentary (e.g., in Seeking Alpha) suggests that High Tide’s Germany deal is accretive and that “good Q3 momentum” is expected. (Seeking Alpha)
- The “record revenue, adjusted EBITDA ahead of analyst forecasts, and the best same-store growth in two years” language in the August preview sets the bar high and may mean that even a small underperformance might be viewed as a disappointment. (hightideinc.com)
What to Expect When the Results Drop
Given all of the above, here are plausible scenarios for Q3:
Base Case
High Tide meets or slightly exceeds its guidance: revenue hits a record level (fairly likely given retail strength), same-store sales around 7-8% YoY, adjusted EBITDA grows both absolutely and as a margin %. Free cash flow may improve over Q2. Germany contribution is modest but positive or establishing. Expect guidance for Q4 or full year to be reaffirmed or fine-tuned upward if momentum continues.
Upside Case
If demand is stronger than expected, or cost controls are tighter, High Tide could beat its own guidance. Perhaps same-store sales exceed 8%, adjusted EBITDA margin expands more than forecast, and the Germany acquisition begins contributing revenue earlier. Loyalty program growth could accelerate, giving more recurring revenue. This would likely pleasantly surprise investors.
Downside Case
Revenue misses slightly (e.g. weaker consumer traffic, increased competition), same-store sales come in a bit under 7.4%, and adjusted EBITDA comes below analysts’ forecasts due to margin compression. Free cash flow might be weak or negative, especially if there are write-downs or one-off costs related to expansion or Germany entry. In that case, market reaction could be negative, with pressure on forward guidance and possibly share price.
Bottom Line: What to Know Going in
As High Tide readies its Q3 numbers, investors have reason for cautious optimism. The August preview sets a strong tone: revenue growth, expanding operations, and improved profitability. But execution will matter — can High Tide convert its operational gains (same-store sales, membership growth, retail strength) into bottom-line results, especially in terms of adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow?
All eyes will be on whether the company can keep momentum, manage costs, and prove that its international moves (notably into Germany) are more than just announcements, but real value drivers. The report on September 15 (after market close) and the conference call on September 16 should offer clarity on these issues. (hightideinc.com)
