Highlights;
- Russian oil exports to India dropped by nearly 40% to 800,000 barrels per day, the lowest since October 2022.
- Traders anticipate a potential increase in Russian oil deliveries to India in September due to expected price reductions.
- The US punitive tariffs on Russian oil may not achieve their intended effect, as Indian purchases could rise by 10-20%.
- Russia’s ability to boost exports faces challenges, including damage to its energy infrastructure and ongoing repairs at the Ust-Luga port.
According to Bloomberg, Russian oil exports to India have dropped by nearly 40%, reaching just over 800,000 barrels per day, the lowest level since October 2022. This decline, noted by Carsten Fritsch of Commerzbank, may be subject to revision.
Despite this, traders anticipate an increase in Russian oil deliveries to India in September. This expectation comes as producers are likely to reduce prices to offload additional supply caused by refinery outages. Sources predict that purchases by Indian refineries could rise by 10-20%, or 150-300 thousand barrels per day, compared to August.
However, the recently implemented U.S. punitive tariffs may not achieve their intended effect. Uncertainty remains whether Russia can boost its exports due to damage to its energy infrastructure from Ukrainian drone attacks.
Repairs at the Ust-Luga oil port, damaged in these attacks, are expected to take several months. In September, the port’s loading capacity is anticipated to operate at only half its usual capacity.
Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/significant-increase-in-russian-oil-shipments-to-india-expected-in-september-commerzbank-202508291123
